Posts Tagged ‘politics’

Gujarat: The unconvincing economic miracle

Wednesday, March 26th, 2014


We are being sold the notion that we should vote for Mr. Modi and become part of his cult because he has wrought miracles with growth in Gujarat. No matter if he likes killing Muslims in well-orchestrated pogroms and belongs to the same ideology that hero worships Hitler and his SA. At least, the rest of us will get richer. ┬áSo I think to myself, let’s try and analyze if the “economic development” card holds true.

Gujarat has the highest increase in GDP when comparing the fiscal years 2004-2005 (203,373 Cr.) to 2011-2012 (620,044 Cr), a whopping 304%. Looks great doesn’t it. It is! However, as an analyst , I know that one number rarely tells the whole story. Let’s scratch around a little more and see.

If we look at the top growing states in India, Gujarat at 304% is followed by Tamil Nadu at 290% growth, Maharashtra at 280%, Kerala at 273% and Karnataka sitting at 279% growth in nominal GDP. Is there a statistically significant difference in all these growth rates?

I don’t think so; particularly if you take into account the all india GDP growth is 278%. This is looks like the “India Shining” campaign all over again.

Well, let’s take a gander at GDP growth per capita. That should tell us how each state is performing taking into account the population. In this measure, Gujarat is the sixth highest. Not bad, but is it the best among the big boys? Bihar( yes! incredible Nitish), Haryana and Tamil Nadu outrank it there too.

Not bad but hardly the best. India GDP per capita grew by 227% whereas Gujarat grew by 238%. Is it statistically significant? I don’t think so. India Shining again!

Congress walahs tend to point at Gujarat and its debt growth over the same period as if that has not happened to all states. This is a national problem and not only a Gujarat issue. This increased burden of public debt that the governments at all levels are blithely adding to their balance sheets will bear watching and curbing eventually.

In the meanwhile, I refuse to sacrifice myself so that my brethren can get “pseudo-riche”. If it really was true, we could consider sending 20 crore Muslims to the gallows. However, on present evidence this mass murderer may not turn out to be the messiah for the rest of India too.